Global total energy supply will increase by more than 15 percent between 2020 and 2050, Trend reports with reference to the Announced Pledges Case (APC) of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Energy intensity falls on average by around 2.6 percent per year to 2050 compared with 2.2 percent in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario. There is a substantial increase in energy demand in emerging market and developing economies, where economic and population growth is fastest and where there are fewer net zero pledges, which outweighs the reductions in energy demand in the countries with net zero pledges.
The global increase in energy supply in the APC is led by renewables, which increase their share in the energy mix from 12 percent in 2020 to 35% by 2050 (compared with 25% in 2050 in the STEPS). Solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind in the electricity sector together contribute about 50 percent of the growth in renewables supply, and bioenergy contributes around 30percent. Bioenergy use doubles in industry, triples in electricity generation and grows by a factor of four in transport: it plays an important role in reducing emissions from heat supply and removing CO2 from the atmosphere when it is combined with CCUS. Nuclear maintains its share of the energy mix, its output rising by a quarter to 2030 (compared with a 15 percent increase in the STEPS), driven by lifetime extensions at existing plants and new reactors in some countries. Global coal use falls significantly more rapidly in the APC than in the STEPS. It drops from 5 250 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2020 to 4 000 Mtce in 2030 and 2 600 Mtce in 2050 (compared with 4 300 Mtce in the STEPS in 2050).
Most of this decline is due to reduced coal‐fired electricity generation in countries with net zero pledges as plants are repurposed, retrofitted or retired. In advanced economies, unabated coal‐fired power plants are generally phased out over the next 10‐15 years. China’s coal consumption for electricity declines by 85 percent between 2020 and 2050 on its path towards carbon neutrality in 2060. These declines more than offset continued growth for coal in countries without net zero pledges. Globally, coal use in industry falls by 25 percent between 2020 and 2050, compared with a 5 percent decline in the STEPS.