The experts of the forecasting department of the Human resources development centre JSC drafted a demographic projection following the childbirth, mortality and migration rates in Kazakhstan, Kazinform reports.
According to the forecast, the population of Kazakhstan may range from 20.8 mln (in the worst-case scenario) up to 21.5 mln (in the best-case scenario) by 2030, and from 23.5 mln to 27.2 mln by 2050, the press service of the Labour and Social Protection Ministry of Kazakhstan informs.
'The population of Kazakhstan may reach 20,958,000 people by 2030 if the mortality and birth rates remain on the level of 2021, and external and inter-regional migration rate remains at the mean value, the director of the centre,» Dmitry Shumekov said.
He added that the centre developed 27 basic scenarios for each region depending on the selected reference year, birth, mortality and migration rates. The population of Nur-Sultan is estimated to grow most by 420,000 or 33% up to 1.7 mln by 2030 according to the basic forecast, Almaty population is projected to increase by 369,000 or 32% to make 1.5 mln. Besides, the population in Turkistan is predicted to rise by 207,000, Mangistau region by 170,000, while Almaty region is forecast to increase by 145,000.
The population is expected to decrease in East Kazakhstan, Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Pavlodar, Akmola regions.
According to the basic forecast, the population of Shymkent will reach 2.8 mln rising by 1,679,000 or 2.5 times by 2022. The city will take the lead in the population growth. Nur-Sultan population will surge by 1,634,000 or by 2.3 times to stand at 2.9 mln. The population in Almaty will hit 3.5 mln that is 1.4 mln more against 2022. Mangistau population will grow by 820,000 to reach 1, 571,000.
He also reminded that the UN projections suggest that the world's population will grow to 8 billion by 2030, 9 bln by 2037, 10 bln by 2058. Eight countries will report more than half of the predicted global population growth by 2050: India (253 mln) , Nigeria (159 mln), Pakistan (132 mln), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (118 mln), Ethiopia (91 mln), Tanzania (64 mln), Egypt (49 mln), Pakistan, the Philippines (42 mln).