Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) may return to lowering the refinancing rate in 2023 if inflation slows down in accordance with forecasts and there are no new external shocks, Deputy Head of Research at Russia's Gazprombank Gulnara Khaidarshina told Trend.
According to her, CBA kept the discount rate at 7.75 percent on September 16 amid maintaining a positive dynamic of deposits in the national currency and a decrease in the dollarization of deposits.
"Given the decision of CBA, as well as the neutral tone of the press release, Gazprombank supposes that the issue of raising the rate is excluded from the agenda at least until the end of the year," Khaidarshina said.
The CBA said that the balance of risks in the economy has not changed significantly since the July meeting. Azerbaijani Central Bank expects inflation to slow down by the end of the year following a decline in world food prices and logistics costs. And the bank also improved the inflation forecast for 2023.
The Govenor of CBA Taleh Kazimov noted that inflation is expected to slow down by the end of the year to 12.5-12.8 percent on an annualized basis and return to 'single-digit' levels next year under favorable external conditions.