Global oil supply growth is upgraded to 4.8 mb/d in 2022 from 4.7 mb/d forecast previously and to 1.7 mb/d in 2023 from 1 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES).
OIES says in its latest report that OPEC crude oil output is expected to reach 30 mb/d in Q4 2022 to a new post-pandemic high, albeit many producers have already reached their maximum capacity.
“As of August, we estimate that OPEC+ output remained 3.5 mb/d below required production, while since April 2020 that marked the start of the current deal OPEC producers lost 500,000 b/d of productive capacity with African producers alone accounting for a loss of 850,000 b/d. Non-OPEC crude supply outlook improved and is projected to grow by 1.1 mb/d in 2022 and by 0.2 mb/d in 2023, but gains excluding the Russian revisions remain marginal,” reads the report.
The report reveals that the products markets remain unsettled, with global diesel/gasoil supplies severely tight.
“Refinery margins bounced back in August, but the latest hike lacked support as tight middle distillate supplies were confronted by weak rebound in Chinese demand amid the possibility of another large batch of products export quotas in October, recession fears in Europe and the US, the so far limited impact on Russian product exports particularly in Europe and a mild start to the US hurricane season. Higher disruptions in Russian exports towards year-end, a strong comeback of Chinese demand in Q4 and high gas-to-oil switching could provide important support in the coming winter months.”