Wood Mackenzie forecasts global demand will grow by nearly 6 million b/d in the next 18 months to over 101 million b/d in Q4 2022, eclipsing the previous peak in 2019, Trend reports with reference to the company.
“The big driver is the resurgent global economy. We forecast global GDP growth of 5 percent this year as the vaccine rollout releases economies from lockdown. In those countries furthest along in the fight against the virus, personal mobility is making a comeback, pushing up consumption of gasoline and aviation fuel in China and the US. We expect a buoyant driving season to take US gasoline within reach of past highs. Suggestions that the 2020 crisis had put global oil demand on a permanent decline path look premature,” said Wood Mackenzie.
One risk to demand growth is Covid-19 and recurring lockdowns in some countries, the company believes.
“New waves of the virus in India, Southeast Asia, parts of Europe and elsewhere were one reason why oil demand mildly undershot our initial expectations in the early months of this year. Covid-19 still casts a shadow over the pace of global economic recovery.
Second, growth in oil supply will be a fraction of expected demand growth in 2021. OPEC+ is exercising an abundance of caution to keep the market in balance and avoid surpluses as the economy recovers. Global liquids volumes will increase by just 1.3 million b/d this year, whereas we forecast demand to grow 5.9 million b/d year-on-year.
OPEC+ is delivering an additional 2.1 million b/d of supply to the market over the three months to the end of July, in line with its 1 April decision. Non-OPEC volumes (excluding OPEC+ members) are flat for 2021. Modest production increases in Brazil and Norway offset a year-on-year decline in US Lower 48.”